Cirrus Chart of the Week
The American people have spoken and concluded the 2024 US election, with Donald Trump emerging as the victor over his main opponent Kamala Harris.This marks the second Republican victory in five presidential cycles, both won by Trump, but it raises the question of how much the two major parties (Republicans and Democrats) spend on their campaigns to secure the best possible chance of success.
We examined the past five US presidential elections between the Republicans and Democrats, focusing on each party's campaign spending and the cost per voter (CPV), calculated by dividing total spending by the number of votes obtained in each election.
Over these years, Democratic presidential candidates have consistently outspent their Republican counterparts. Even with higher vote counts in their winning elections, which can dilute the CPV, Democrats' cost per voter has been higher in every election compared to the Republicans.
The last two elections reveal notable spending differences: in 2020, Democrats spent over three times more than Republicans but gained only 9% more votes, whereas in 2024, they spent similarly high amounts yet secured 7% fewer votes.
On average, over this period, the Republican CPV stands at US$10.02, while the Democratic CPV is double at US$21.09. This disparity is largely due to the 2020 and 2024 elections, where Democrats' CPV was US$38.81 and US$25.87, compared to a more consistent range of US$11.16 and US$7.64 for the Republicans, respectively.
Both parties reduced their spending in the most recent campaign from the 2020 peaks. Republicans cut their expenses to their lowest levels since 2004, while Democrats maintained significantly higher spending over the past two elections in pursuit of voter support.
Ultimately, it appears that policies outweighed exposure, with money not being the decisive factor. This resulted in a "red wave" sweeping across the map, securing Republicans both the popular and electoral votes, the majority in the House and Senate, and turning all swing states red. - Cirrus Capital