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Pandu Shaduka - In 2024, there have been 66 major elections held (74 expected) across the world.In major economies such as the US and the UK, there have been major shifts in power, while countries such as France and India have seen historical majorities fall.
The South African elections held earlier this year saw the ANC maintain its hold on the presidency but lose the parliamentary majority for the first time. The ANC’s leadership formed a coalition (Government of National Unity), marking a fundamental change in the country’s political landscape.
In Botswana and Mauritius, there was an overwhelming switch to the opposition parties, taking power from the respective long-standing ruling parties.
The Namibian parliamentary elections are due to take place on 27 November 2024, and the local picture is very similar to that of their southern African and global counterparts.
Economic conditions
While it is difficult to discern all the reasons why people choose to vote (and ultimately who for), it is evident that economic conditions do play a significant role in voter behaviour.
In all the aforementioned countries (bar South Africa), inflation between elections was higher than the historical average – the UK and US seeing inflation 3.79 and 3.83 percentage points (p.p.) higher than the historical average, respectively, while Botswana, Mexico and Mauritius recorded 1.28, 2.02, and 1.98 p.p. increases, respectively.
Additionally, unemployment worsened over the period, with South Africa and Botswana recording increases of 3.00 and 3.29 p.p., respectively.
Namibia
In all the aforementioned countries, GDP per capita has improved, but this is misleading given the increase in inequality across each of the countries.
With Namibia’s elections on the horizon, the economic picture for the majority of the country has worsened.
The country has seen GDP per capita decrease and worsening unemployment (inferred from Afrobarometer data, given the Namibia Statistics Agency’s decision to delay official numbers) over the last five years.
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