Tourism on uptick despite visa decision
Industry players worried however
Citizens from countries that do not provide visa-free access to Namibians will have to apply for visas at designated points of entry starting April next year.
The tourism sector is expected to enjoy a flurry of tourists throughout the year, despite the government's decision to end visa-free access for citizens of dozens of countries next year.This follows a Cabinet decision aimed at seeking reciprocity from 30 countries that do not allow Namibians visa-free entry.
"Despite the lower-than-expected occupancy rate in June, the tourism sector remains poised for a promising year overall, with the average national occupancy rate in the first half of 2024 at its highest since 2017," stockbroking firm IJG Security said following the release of the tourism statistics by the Hospitality Association of Namibia (HAN).
"This positive outlook is further supported by a record number of passenger arrivals in June 2024, relative to figures for the same month in prior years."
"However, according to HAN, the Namibian tourism industry is set to encounter significant challenges in the upcoming months, exacerbated by the threat of steep price hikes on long-haul flights to Europe due to new climate levies and taxes. However, the overall resilience and growth observed thus far lead us to take a cautiously optimistic outlook for the rest of the year," it added.
Occupancy rates
According to HAN, between 2016 and 2023, the national occupancy rate declined by 5.1 percentage points on average from May to June, while in 2024, the occupancy rates between the two months were 13 percentage points lower.
"Market participants speculate that the recently approved stringent visa regime, which ends visa-free access to Namibia for citizens of over 30 countries if their nations do not reciprocate visa-free entry for Namibians, may have adversely impacted the industry," IJG said.
"However, this hypothesis requires further validation through subsequent occupancy rate data. Additionally, it is important to note that the visa regime is only effective [as of] April 2025. Despite a lower-than-expected occupancy rate in June, the tourism sector is poised for a promising rest of the year," it added.
The national occupancy rate for June now stands at 47.3%.
Passenger arrival numbers
Passenger arrivals in Namibia during June 2024 provide a different perspective. A total of 43 794 passengers arrived, representing a 6.6% m/m decline from May’s 46 878 arrivals, mirroring the trend observed in occupancy rates. However, June 2024 witnessed the highest number of arrivals for any June on record, with an annual increase of 9.5%, diverging from the pattern seen in occupancy rates, the statistics by HAN as analysed by IJG showed.
"Examining the data on a quarterly basis, both the first and second quarters of 2024 have outperformed their respective counterparts in previous years, showcasing robust growth and resilience in passenger arrivals despite the decline on a monthly basis. Passenger arrivals fell 15.3% this quarter compared to the corresponding quarter but rose 20.9% y/y in the first three months of 2024, while in the second quarter of 2024, arrivals rose 12.3% between this quarter and the last quarter and 6.2% this year compared to the same period last year," IJG said.
The countries affected by the new visa regulation are Armenia, Austria, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Belgium, Canada, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Liechtenstein, Luxembourg, Moldova, the Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Ukraine, the United Kingdom, the United States of America and Uzbekistan.