Eight 'D' mega themes defining 2025
The great recalibration
2025 has become a year of structural realignment. Globally, geopolitical shifts, technological disruption, climate urgency and demographic changes are reshaping economies. Locally, Namibia enters a new era with its first budget under President Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah.The FY26 National Budget, themed “Beyond 35: For a Prosperous Future” focuses on structural reform, youth investment and debt sustainability.
This article integrates eight global mega themes with Namibia's situation and budget to help readers navigate the landscape.
• Distancing & Decoupling
Geopolitical fragmentation, de-globalisation and trade realignment define today’s world. Namibia must balance relationships in BRICS, the West, and regional blocs (AfCFTA, SADC, SACU and CMA). The budget allocates N$2.7bn to transport infrastructure, reinforcing Namibia's role as a logistics hub. Opportunities lie in logistics, infrastructure bonds, and regional trade sectors.
• Disorder & Donald
Global political uncertainty persists, but Namibia’s transition has been smooth, with a reform-focused budget prioritising stability. Despite revenue pressures, the fiscal deficit remains at 4.6% of GDP, with public debt forecast to moderate at 62%. Stability and policy predictability make education, health, and food production key investment areas.
• Demographics & Development
Developed markets age while Namibia faces high youth unemployment. FY26 allocates N$24.8bn to education, N$1.3bn to youth development, and N$2.6bn to agriculture. Investments in skills development, agri-tech, and vocational training partnerships hold significant potential.
• Disruption & Discontent
Technology, climate risks, and social unrest are reshaping industries. Namibia is prioritising healthcare (N$12.3bn) and environmental resilience (water: N$956m, agriculture: N$2.6bn). Digital procurement and service delivery are expanding. Long-term opportunities lie in healthcare infrastructure, green finance, and food security.
• Data & Digitalisation
AI and digital transformation are accelerating. Namibia’s ICT budget is N$898m, with e-invoicing for VAT-registered entities launching in 2026. VAT collection on imported digital services levels the playing field. Investments in digital payments, cybersecurity, and tech-driven services are crucial.
• Debt & Distress
Global debt remains high, but Namibia’s approach is balanced. The government plans to redeem its US$750m Eurobond in 2025 through a mix of reserves and domestic market borrowing. With a domestic funding requirement of N$17bn, Treasury bills and bonds remain attractive for investors.
• Deflation & Disinflation
Namibia’s inflation rate declined to 3.6% by February 2025, allowing for monetary policy easing. Lower inflation supports consumer recovery and investment. A lower-rate environment benefits equities, property, and longer-duration bonds.
• Discount Rate & Debate
Shifts in capital allocation favour yield-bearing instruments and alternatives. Namibia’s development budget increased to N$12.8bn but remains lower than interest payments, highlighting the need for public-private partnerships. Infrastructure co-investment, project bonds, and private equity aligned with national priorities offer growth opportunities.
Namibia’s budget strikes a balance between realism and ambition, fostering a stable investment climate. In a world of decoupling, disruption and digitalisation, understanding structural shifts is key.
* Floris Bergh is the Chief Economist at Capricorn Asset Management.
** Opinion pieces and letters by the public do not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial team. The editors reserve the right to abridge original texts. All newspapers of Network Media Hub adhere to the Code of Ethics for Namibian Media, a code established jointly with the Media Ombudsman.