Maize shortfall across southern Africa
Acute food insecurities
The FAO has warned that acute food insecurity in southern Africa, estimated at 16 million people in the first three months of 2024, could deteriorate in late 2024.
Cereal production prospects in southern Africa have taken a sharp turn for the worse since last February, the Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations (FAO) warned.The foreseen shortfall in production, especially for maize, is expected to intensify households’ food insecurity, push up domestic prices and spur a surge in import needs across the subregion, according to a new assessment from FAO’s Global Information and Early Warning System. White maize accounts for almost 20 percent of calories consumed in the subregion.
The disappointing forecast comes after “widespread and substantial rainfall deficits in February, exacerbated by record high temperatures, a particularly damaging combination for crops,” the report said, noting that there are scant hopes of a recovery before the harvest period commences in May.
Acute food insecurity in southern Africa, estimated at 16 million people in the first three months of 2024, could deteriorate in late 2024, FAO warned.
Food prices, already rising at annual rates above 10 percent, are likely to rise further and, based on current projections, South Africa and Zambia, typically maize exporters, will not be able to cover the supply shortfall, and Zambia has started importing maize to meet the shortfall.
"This combination of reduced harvests and rising food prices is particularly harmful for agricultural households and restoration of production, as farm incomes are set to be squeezed while more resources will be needed to purchase food," said Jonathan Pound, economist at FAO’s Global Information and Early Warning System.
Shift to La Niña
This observed pattern is typical of the El Niño weather phenomenon in the region, FAO noted.
Current forecasts, however, point to a high likelihood of a transition to a La Niña phase later in the year with more beneficial precipitation patterns.
That makes it “imperative” to scale up resilience-bolstering measures enabling farmers to prepare adequately for the next agricultural season starting in September, FAO said.
The governments of Malawi, Zambia and Zimbabwe have already declared drought emergencies. Teaming up with the NASA Harvest programme, FAO geospatial observations suggest that key cereal crops will suffer adverse impacts in parts of Namibia, Angola, Malawi, Mozambique, South Africa and Zimbabwe with Zimbabwe, Malawi and Mozambique expected to see a notable jump in import needs.
Namibia’s crop prospects
According to the Crop Prospects, Food Security and Drought Situation Report of March, maize production in the communal area (Zambezi, Kavango East and Kavango West regions) is estimated at 3 400 metric tonnes (MT), which is 50% below last season’s production of 6 800 MT.
Maize production in the commercial area is provisionally estimated at 19 900 MT, which is 77% lower than last season’s harvest of 88 200 MT.
Pearl millet production is estimated at 15 900 MT, which is 22% lower than last season’s harvest of 20 500 MT. Furthermore, sorghum production is estimated at 1 500 MT, reflecting a decrease of 32% from last season’s harvest of 2 200 MT.
The decrease in the expected harvest is highly attributed to the drought conditions and the prolonged dry spells experienced during the course of the 2023–2024 season.
On the other hand, wheat production in the commercial area is estimated at 15 300 MT, which is 33% below last season’s harvest of 22 800 MT.
According to the Namibian Agronomic Board (NAB), the decline in the expected wheat and maize harvest from the commercial area is primarily due to the prevailing devastating drought conditions and the substantial reduction in the number of farmers mainly from the private sector, most of who produce under rainfed conditions, leading to a further reduction in the total planted area.
The green scheme projects are expected to produce 13 100 MT of maize during this season, which is 24% more than the last season’s production of 10 600 MT. Furthermore, the wheat production in the green scheme projects is estimated at 3 100 MT this season, which is 63% more than last season’s production of 1 900 MT. The estimated increase in the green scheme projects is due to the increase in the planted area.